Morgan Stanley has issued a bold projection for the tokenized asset market, forecasting that the sector will expand to between $3 trillion and $10 trillion by 2030. The prediction, delivered by Amy Oldenburg, the bank's Head of Digital Asset Strategy, underscores a growing conviction among major financial institutions that blockchain-based asset representation is moving from experimentation to core infrastructure.

The upper end of Morgan Stanley's range aligns closely with other institutional forecasts. Citi Institute has projected a $5.5 trillion tokenized asset market by 2030, while the broader range of analyst estimates continues to converge around the multi-trillion-dollar mark within the next five years.

The Infrastructure Shift

Oldenburg's forecast comes as Morgan Stanley itself prepares to operationalize tokenized asset trading. The bank now expects to begin supporting tokenized equities on its Alternative Trading System (ATS) in Q1 2027, a revision from its earlier target of the second half of 2026.

The bank is simultaneously developing wallet infrastructure for custodying tokenized assets and has established a Digital Asset Lab to test blockchain applications before commercial rollout. Oldenburg identified private equities, structured notes, and access to private funds as particularly promising use cases, where blockchain could reduce paperwork and administrative costs.

Market Infrastructure Convergence

The revision in Citi's forecast from $4–5 trillion to $5.5 trillion was directly linked to major market infrastructure providers moving beyond experimentation. The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), NYSE, and Nasdaq are embedding tokenization into core issuance, trading, and settlement workflows.

The DTCC's planned support for a broader range of tokenized products, expected to begin in October, has been identified by Morgan Stanley as a critical milestone for market development.

What the Data Actually Shows

Current market reality presents a more modest picture. The IMF's October 2026 Global Financial Stability Report valued publicly reported tokenized real-world assets at approximately $65 billion as of July 2026, excluding repurchase agreements and stablecoins. Tokenized credit accounted for $30.4 billion, money market funds for $17.5 billion, and tokenized equities for roughly $2.3 billion.

The Institutional FOMO Dynamic

Oldenburg described an observable fear of missing out among institutional players, with attention and participation interest rising noticeably over the past 12 months. This sentiment, she suggested, is mutually reinforcing within the industry.

The IMF's analysis offered early evidence that investors value certain tokenization features. More than 50% of tokenized equity trading occurs outside traditional US market hours, and approximately 80% of trades executed on-chain were for less than one share, indicating retail demand for fractional ownership.

The Path Forward

The gap between current market size and Morgan Stanley's 2030 projection implies a compound annual growth rate that would require sustained institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and infrastructure maturation.

Oldenburg framed the opportunity in expansive terms, describing a future direction of "securitization of everything" as tokenization becomes more widespread and questions arise about using such assets as collateral.